Happy Thanksgiving

I would like to express thanks for the readers, as few as they may be, as well as the ever expanding Reds blogging community who have become very strong over the past year that I have been around.

Now go, eat.

Hopefully there will be a lot more to be thankful for in 2009 when Opening Day rolls around.

Jermaine Dye

On the blogs today there has been a lot of talk about the possiblity of the Reds acquring OF Jermaine Dye from the White Sox for Homer Bailey and another player (or two).

I’m really not in favor of the deal for several reasons.

I feel that Homer has not reached the end with the Reds.  He is still only 22 with a tremendous upside.  You are essentially giving up a future star for several years for one year of Jermaine Dye at $11MIL.

Dye, while a strong hitter in the past, will be 35 next year with diminishing defensive speed and skills.  Where would you place him? In left to supplant Dickerson?  Looking at his projections from Bill James on Fangraphs it is easy to see how little this deal seems to make.

The only way I see this working is if the Reds are seeing this as a stop-gap measure so that they can move Joey Votto to left and hope that Yonder Alonso is able to play first base in 2010.  I wouldn’t suspect this would be the case even in the best of circumstances.  You would lose a potential pitching star and another prospect for short term gain during a time in which the Reds are still a year or so away from actually contending.

Why not stay younger and cheaper for now while Homer develops, used as a fifth starter, or even placed into the bullpen.

According to Rosenthal, even the Mets, Rays, and Phillies think the price is absurd.

Gammons: Dunn “Most Intriguing Free Agent”

In the latest issue of Baseball America, writer Peter Gammons lists Adam Dunn as his fourth “most intriguing free agent”:

He is spending the winter at Athletes Performance Institute trying to get into the best shape of his career.  The Diamondbacks liked him; they’re just not willing to spend the money.  But they felt his on-base percentage and power and enjoyment of the pennant race were good.  Dunn wants to play for a contender, so Washington may be out.

So apparently Dunn does have enthusiasm for the game.

Gammons mentioned Washington because earlier rumors said that Leatherpants was interested in adding one more former Red to his team in the nation’s capital.

I really wish the best for Dunn since he is a product of the Reds’ farm system and hope he can contribute to a team in contention.  It won’t be easy for me to see him in another uniform left to wonder “what could have been” if certain people hadn’t run him out of town.

It is hard to imagine that he is a worse player option for the Reds at this point given that a potential outfield of Dickerson, Freel, and Bruce are what is projected for 2009.

The other free agents mentioned in Gammons’ article were Furcal, Lowe, Ibanez, and Milton Bradley.

Hey Walt…

This might be a good idea for your team.

It looks like the Mariners’ new GM, Jack Zduriencik, is devoting a whole new department to statistical analysis.

From the Seattle Times:

It turns out the Mariners are planning to do a whole lot more. In fact, they’re in the process of creating an entirely new department to deal with the subject.

The department will fall under the auspices of Tony Blengino, a longtime baseball stats analyst and a special assistant to new Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik. Details of the department’s mandate and size are still to be worked out, but the move could vault the Mariners from their perceived Stone Age approach to stats to one in which they’re seen as one of the game’s more progressive franchises.

I know Jocketty was pretty much vehminetly opposed to any analytical department in St. Louis and that it was part of the reason he left.  However, if he sees that other teams are getting serious, how can he ignore it for much longer?

We want to take all the information at our disposal and combine it with our scouting,” Blengino said Friday.

I think this is the best approach.  A synthesis of scouting (subjective) and statistical analysis (objective) can really be an asset to any club looking for an edge.  Too much of one or the other can lead to players being missed and then you lose your advantage.

If we were to ask Walt to what extent the Reds use statistical analysis I am sure that he would give a canned response that wouldn’t revel anything.

Perhaps someone could ask him in person if they see him at RedsFest next month.

Reds Broadcast in Jeopardy

Here we go again.

Rick Redding, a local media critic and journalist has reveled that the Louisville affiliate for Reds broadcasts will be pulling the plug on their sports-talk format.  A move that could leave the Louisville market without any radio broadcast of Reds games.

A dispute has developed between 93.9 The Ticket (Reds affiliate) and 790 WKRD, the latter of which is operated by the University of Louisville Clear Channel.  Each station has poached talent and has taken pot shots at each other for one reason or another.

For the purposes of full disclosure, I am a University of Louisville fan, but the programming on WKRD has been controlled and manipulated by the University, almost to the point of censorship, which totally disgusts me.

I have posted on this blog before about the difficulties of finding a reliable affiliate that had a clear signal around town for me and others to enjoy the Reds down here in Louisville, but this is getting a bit out of hand.  Of course, if I had the money (any donations?) I would have bought a 50,000 watt station and broadcast Reds games and other national programming (Fox Sports has gotten the shaft here locally as well) since I like it much more than most radio shows around the area.

I guess I will have to make another call to Joe Zerhusen, the Reds affiliate coordinator, to make sure that fans in Louisville can hear Marty, Jeff, and Thom next season.  Joel was very helpful the last time around and I have no reason think that he won’t work his hardest to make sure fans are satisfied.

EDIT: Clear Channel operates the station, not the University of Louisville.  Sorry for the error.

Names of the Condemned

The names of the “baseball writers” who voted for Edinson Volquez for Rookie of the Year.

Jeremy Cothran of the Newark Star-Ledger

John Klima of the Los Angeles Daily News (a SABR member)

Jay Paris of the North County Times in San Diego.

Keep in mind, these are members of the Baseball Writers Association of America who vote on the Hall of Fame, individual season awards, and also voted to keep Law and Rob Neyer out of the association because they “didn’t go to the ballpark enough”.

Please be sure to leave these men a note to tell them what a stellar job they are doing with a credential that should be revoked.

Via Keith Law, Via Shysterball

Brandon is Golden

AP Photo by Tony Dejak

Congratulations to Brandon Phillips for winning the National League Gold Glove Award for second base.  I have to admit, he is my favorite Red.  Hopefully he comes again this year to the Reds Winter Caravan stop in Louisville so I can personally congratulate him.

I also wanted to note that BP was selected as the Bill James Handbook’s Fielding Bible Award winner as the best defensive second basemen in the Major Leagues.

Sheehan: Reds Should Get Lowe

An interesting take by Joe Sheehan from Baseball Prospectus via Sports Illustrated.com

2. Cincinnati signs Derek Lowe.

The Reds aren’t often thought of as players in free agency, but they could be an NL Central sleeper in ’09; Lowe, 35, would make them a bona fide contender. He’s a durable righthander who may be the safest bet in a deep free-agent pitching pool. His ability to induce ground balls is a huge asset in tiny Great American Ballpark, and his signing would allow Cincinnati to keep Homer Bailey, 22, in long relief as he adjusts to the majors, or to deal Bronson Arroyo for a quality infield glove.

Intriguing.  He had a very good season last year.  At 35, he started 34 games and pitched 211 innings.  His 2008 WHIP at 1.133, and having a strong, durable groundballer at GABP is a very nice thought.

The only problem is that he would probably ask for about the same amount of money ($10M in 2008) or more and 3-4 years.

If only Wayner hadn’t given Coco Corderro that bloated, long-term deal, Derek Lowe in the rotation would be a very good possibility.  Now the team seems to have more issues in terms of position players rather than pitching.

Could the Reds use Lowe as a stop-gap measure while wating for Bailey, Daryl Thompson, and/or Ramon Ramirez?

Boycott Zogby

In my other life, outside of pouring over baseball and other sports, I am a political science geek.  I love politics, news, and current events so of course the upcoming election tomorrow, (Go out and vote!) it is one of my favorite times of the year.

Zogby, one of the biggest polls out there, has taken a shot at a fellow baseball geek and Baseball Prospectus writer Nate Silver, editor and founder of FiveThirtyEight.com, a website that uses Nate’s Baseball Prospectus model to project the presidential election using weighted polling data.

Andrew Sullivan of The Atlantic, who’s blog has been amazing during the campaign season (and beyond), quoted Zogby’s direct shot across the bow at Nate:

“Remember, as I said yesterday, one day does not make a trend. This is a three-day rolling average and no changes have been tectonic. A special note to blogger friends: calm it down. Lay off the cable television noise and look at your baseball cards in your spare time. It is better for your (and everyone else’s) health.”

As someone who not only loves his childhood collection of baseball cards (Topps ’82-’92) and politics, I am now going to boycott Zogby polling, even though I know as a good political scientist that I should take in all information and distill it down without bias.  However, with Zogby’s quote, I feel that he is taking a shot at me as well.

Reds Going HD in 2009

A source inside Great American Ballpark stadium scoreboard operations has told me that the Reds will be replacing some (possibly all) of the dot-matrix board in Great American Ballpark this off season. This would include the inning-by-inning scoring area as well as the trivia/fun facts area to the far left of the board.

Currently, equipment is being replaced inside the scoreboard control room in order to prepare for the upgrade.

It is not known at this time how much the upgrade will cost or what company will be doing the installation.  Over the past few seasons, various ballparks around MLB have been upgrading their scoreboards to bring a high-definition experience to fans.  The Kansas City Royals and the Washington Nationals being just a few of those teams.  The Milwukee Brewers will be adding a HD display in 2010 which is supposed to cost between $9 and $12 million.

Last year the Reds partnered with Scorepad.com’s STADIUMNet software to become the third MLB team that allows fans to see an in-game scorecard of each batter on the video screen. The San Franscisco Giants and Atlanta Braves also have this technology.